With Election Day finally arrived, here is a look at how San Joaquin County’s largest race may end.
Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is facing off against San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a former boxer and local Republican businessman, to represent the newly-formed 9th Congressional District.
Though the county tends to lean Democratic, some say the race may be closer than originally expected. Stocktonia spoke with Keith Smith, an associate professor of political science at University of the Pacific, to understand which way the district may ultimately vote.
He says Harder, who represents the former 10th Congressional District and is considered the de facto incumbent, has an advantage over his opponent.
“If I were a betting person, which I am absolutely not, my bet would be on Harder winning,” Smith said.
District 9, formed during California’s most recent redistricting process following the decennial U.S. Census, is largely an expanded version of its former self that included north San Joaquin County, including Stockton, and areas of Contra Costa and Sacramento counties. South San Joaquin County was part of the former 10th District now repped by Harder.
Both of these previous districts have recently been represented in Congress by Democrats. McNerney, who will retire after his current term expires in January, was first elected to the former 9th District in 2012, when the last redistricting took place. Harder won the 10th District seat in 2018, defeating four-term Republican incumbent Jeff Denham.
The new 9th District now encompasses nearly all of San Joaquin County, except Lathrop, as well as some smaller portions of Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties.
Smith has previously said that California’s recent redistricting largely favored Democratic candidates. But the region has since seen the number of registered Republicans increase and Democrats decrease.
According to state data, just over 43% of the new 9th District’s more than 381,000 registered voters are Democrats as of Oct. 24, while just 28% are Republican. In the 2020 General Election, about 45% of the former 9th District’s more than 395,000 voters were registered Democrats, with 27% registered as Republican.
The county’s voter makeup in terms of political affiliation generally bodes well for Harder. Smith said every election, including smaller local elections, have become nationalized, with voters more or less aligning with their respective political party.
“When people vote for Congress, they’re not voting for Harder or Patti, they’re voting Democrats versus Republicans,” Smith said.
And he says that’s been the growing trend in recent elections. …
Cassie Dickman 